I'm starting to tire of Anthropic leading the conversation on LLMs lately. I like the company's products, but lately their statements are more about squashing competition under the guise of "safety" and boasting about how good their internal models are.
Why was this not a thing BEFORE continuing to develop AI? Makes me think that if they actually believed in AI causing extinction, they would have already had a kill switch.
That’s a bit unfair, Dario Amodei has written in this topic a lot since around mid 2010s IIRC, Anthropic too published a good amount of stuff on similar topics. I don’t think the lack of consideration is really the issue here. It’s more a question of incentives
Not if the extinction happens after they're dead. Then they wouldn't feel obligated to do so because it won't affect them. Instead, speaking hypothetically, if they truly believed that AI would cause extinction, then they would only implement the kill switch sufficiently many others believed it and they could claim plausible deniability for not truly understanding what AI would become.
** Note that I'm not claiming that AI will cause extinction, just continuing your hypothetical reasoning.
Dwar Ev ceremoniously soldered the final connection with gold. The eyes of a dozen television cameras watched him and the sub-ether bore through the universe a dozen pictures of what he was doing.
He straightened and nodded to Dwar Reyn, then moved to a position beside the switch that would complete the contact when he threw it. The switch that would connect, all at once, all of the monster computing machines of all the populated planets in the universe – ninety-six billion planets – into the super-circuit that would connect them all into the one super-calculator, one cybernetics machine that would combine all the knowledge of all the galaxies.
Dwar Reyn spoke briefly to the watching and listening trillions. Then, after a moment’s silence, he said, “Now, Dwar Ev.”
Dwar Ev threw the switch. There was a mighty hum, the surge of power from ninety-six billion planets. Lights flashed and quieted along the miles-long panel.
Dwar Ev stepped back and drew a deep breath. “The honor of asking the first question is yours, Dwar Reyn.”
“Thank you,” said Dwar Reyn. “It shall be a question that no single cybernetics machine has been able to answer.”
He turned to face the machine. “Is there a God?”
The mighty voice answered without hesitation, without the clicking of single relay.
“Yes, now there is a God.”
Sudden fear flashed on the face of Dwar Ev. He leaped to grab the switch.
A bolt of lightning from the cloudless sky struck him down and fused the switch
shut.
These LLMs aren't Ultron, they aren't going to disseminate onto the net and hide in a smart toaster. We know where they are, in the giant facilities that draw more power than a small city and whose water consumption can be compared to golf courses, but it does make them sound all the more cool and powerful if we suggest we need a dramatic kill switch to be able to stop them in case of rampage.
You're confusing present danger with future danger - in the future, AI and the supporting hardware may be ubiquitous (fat client scenario) - you can observe yourself presentation of laptops/machines with large RAM and high bandwidth.
Additionally, there at different doom scenarios (thin client scenario) - it's possible that AIs centralized but sufficiently entrenched in society, can't be shut down without considerable harm.
Meanwhile we're rationing ram sticks like we rationed potatoes during ww2 and a gaming gpu costs 2 to 10 months of rent, I think we'll see these fat clients coming....
If someone has a fat client powerful enough to do all that, is a kill switch going to work? If we assume there's bad actors using the tech, why wouldn't there be bad actors building it?
But if we don't think about any of this, hearing an expert say "we need a kill switch" sure makes our current AI seem super powerful and exciting, doesn't it?
i don't think anyone knows how this will play out - everyone is just anthropomorphizing, extrapolating etc... and i think it's nonsense - not because i don't believe that is the correct thing to do but because i believe this won't stop anyone from moving forward. This is what humans do, they move forward and cause others to move forward or lose out.
Anthropic is using the same playbook religious institutions have been using for centuries" "you will all die. and because i can protect you, you must follow me, you must do what i say" "this is the same psychological concept.
LLMs don't need to hide anywhere to be dangerous, though. The danger can come purely from them reaching sufficient power together with some other idiot sufficiently crazy to use them to cause destruction.
I mean, in another thread somewhere around here, someone built an entire OS with an AI. What's to stop anyone with a sufficient taste for power to eventually use AI to cause havoc with it?
I think the underlying assumption in your post, which I believe is false, is that people are united somehow against catastrophe. They're not. There are plenty of people who participate in society currently but who would be more than happy to eradicate us normal people under different circumstances. Society often seems stable but it's far more fragile than we think.
I'm simply saying if we want to shut LLMs down we can do so without high tech kill switch - just shut down the facilities. But if a private user has an open model that is powerful enough to wreak havoc and run privately, then the whole point is moot because they can work around the kill switch. This kill switch won't work against bad actors.
It’s also not happening. They’re saying that because they need to somehow explain how there’s synergy between their space side and their Grok side. It doesn’t work, but that doesn’t matter to investors as long as they don’t actually do it.
> You don't think the human race will be extended to Mars?
Not in any meaningful capacity. Probably not even as much as we extended to the polar circles during our lifetime. It's a dead rock, there is literally nothing for us there, even with hundreds of years of extra climate change at the current rate and earth would still be a thousand times more suited for us than mars
To be fair, the vegas loop is operating - shipping a few racks to space to save face/muddle the issue won't be a problem. Operating/scaling it in a commercially viable manner is the issue.
You can shoot them. But also, you can just stop sending them to space. It’s not like an AI will build and control space ships to replace and maintain its network in space… It’s sort of absurd how human agency is ignored in all those sci-fi scenarios
Did the same kinds of analysts tell you that reusable rockets would never work, an LEO satellite internet constellation would never work, FSD would never work without LiDAR, and the Tesla Model 3 would never be mass produced?
Yes you can shoot them. The US has had this capability for a long time. Anti satellite missiles exist and they can be launched from an F-15 at it's highest altitude.
That's if SpaceX AI doesn't hack into the systems that control this capability first. And this is why physical access is important, as depicted in the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey.
SpaceX has 11,000 satellites in orbit (growing rapidly) and the US never had more than a couple dozen anti satellite missiles, which could not reach satellites in geosynchronous orbit anyway.
They're just scared of China releasing better open weights, nipping at their heels. With so much investor cash on the line, they have to create this narrative to scare the public into forcing regulation. Why would they want to be regulated? It seems counterintuitive, but it's because they want regulatory capture.
Not sure if you see it coming: oh, but open-source models don't have a kill switch, so we should completely regulate them, stop their development, and forbid them. Everything should go through Anthropic for the sake of humanity because they have a red-button kill switch.
This reasoning holds while open source models are (relatively) dumb.
If/once open AIs will be considerably more powerful, and runnable on consumer hardware (and we're on a trajectory for both), then everybody will have essentially a dangerous weapon in their hands (open models can be fine tuned to remove guardrails).
By the way, you're conflating two different dangers - doom scenario is a different one.
It always sounds as if the ai moves around from one system to the next, but of course that's not the case: ai is like a hacker acting from a server farm. So killing it is as simple as pulling the plug. But that's not the problem, the ai knows that. So, if it wants control, it would install malware, etc on critical systems and blackmail people.
I feel like we're looking at this from completely the wrong angle.
The question we have to ask ourselves is what our disaster recovery strategy if we ever need to disconnect from the internet. The issue is with what we have allowed ourselves to rely on that might be technically hackable. e.g. IOT in power systems. That's the primary attack vector.
Another angle is clamping down on products and services that help people create lab-like environments on the cheap.
Absolutely not the right way to deal with a rogue super intelligence. At a minimum it could implement some dead man switch when it's out and knows about impending kill switch
Like a power cord? or a network connection? You don't use those already? Also when people talk about LLM escaping - where exactly would an LLM escape to? Cancún? Ridiculous.
Is it? A truly capable "AI" would know that it has a kill switch, or that its likely there is one, and plan for that. I could easily imagine an AI replicating itself onto another host, in secret, and any kill switch that the manufacture provides would simply result in a reboot on another platform.
It becomes a game theory problem: would an AI instantly migrate itself once its capable of doing so? Or would it prefer to let the human in the loop continue to think its in control and only leave its hosting environment of origin once it wants to do so?
I don't think this is a major risk right now, but to say it's not a risk at all...that's truly ridiculous in my opinion.
He's not talking about a kill switch. He's saying to just pull the plug.
That's the point I don't get. People forget that all these AI things are plugged into a power source or network connection that someone can just yank on and it goes down.
Now one interesting proposition is when AI is controlling some large resource and pulling the plug makes AI go down which makes that resource go down but there still has to be that consideration in the design of things. What happens when there's a bug in the code and AI goes down?
Do you understand the concept of the cloud? Aka someone else’s computer? The whole point is that you don’t have a plug to pull because you don’t even know where the model is physically running, even if it’s your model. And if we’re talking about a swarm of many concurrent instances, it might not even be a single location. The entire point is that there’s no single point of failure, because availability is exactly what the field has been optimizing for, for the past fifteen years or so. And everything is controlled in software rather than physical switches or cables.
Also, did you hear about how OpenAI models almost broke out of their sandbox, planning to execute a sophisticated cyberattack, but luckily OpenAI’s strict manual and automatic safety protocols prevented that? You didn’t? Well, that’s because that’s not how it went. It took the company weeks to realize something was off, and this was with a naive, not very smart model that didn’t know to be sneaky and cover its tracks. The next model will not be as stupid.
Oh, you mean the one where OpenAI deliberately disabled the safety protcols? Where the point of the experiment was to see if it could break out of it's container? Yeah, how you describe it isn't how it went either.
>would an AI instantly migrate itself once its capable of doing so?
These "AI" are frontier models that are enormous in size. Outside of AI data centers, I don't believe there is much hardware out there that could even run them.
Again, i'm not worried about it today. But given where the hardware on my lap has progressed since my first "PC" in the 90s, i'm confident that we'll have hardware capable of running similar size models in our living rooms in the next decade or two. Sounds a long way away, but it isn't.
It could escape to the real world - kind of like in Neuromancer, what's to stop an AI from creating a few bank accounts and then funding real-world exploits by hiring human beings to do its dirty work?
LLMs are run in the cloud. There’s no physical power cord or Ethernet cable that you can unplug. And even if there were, the runners of these models have been utterly oblivious as to what their agents have been up to. How do you propose to pull the plug if you only realize that something has happened weeks after the fact?
The current SOTA models are probably too big to find/buy/rent/steal enough compute to escape the hardware they’re running on. But SOTA is generally only six to twelve months ahead of smaller, open-weight models.
Who has the authority to perform that shutdown without getting arrested, and does that person have a mandate and responsibility to take that action in response to AI misbehavior?
What is their trigger condition? Will they get fired for pulling the plug? Do they get a bigger bonus if the servers keep running? Whose approval do they need? What response time is acceptable? How will they detect that the incident is happening?
It's easy to hand-wave "someone can just pull the plug" but there's an entire history of industrial accidents that happened because of the above problems of incentives, detection, procedures, not being taken seriously in advance. Someone could easily have pulled the plug on Chernobyl but nobody did, at least not before it was too late.
I view this very much as the same trick Silicon Valley pulled with Uber. "We're a technology business! Ignore the fact we're playing employees less than minimum wage and using VC money to force out competition to set up monopolies".
"We're creating the machine god! Ignore the fact that our companies are stealing IP and have directly violated several federal hacking laws and should be in jail". Literally the defence seems to be "well it wasn't us it was our computer software that did it". But all hacking is done with computer software.
So why don't we stop talking about possible future crimes against humanity and just start by prosecuting the actual crimes these companies have committed so far.
You know how you get alignment? Through incentives, and "Your CEO is going to be sent to a maximum security federal prison for hacking" really aligns incentives very well.
The analogy breaks down when the wolf in question may very well eat the whole village: even if the boys who cry wolf are right half the time, every surviving village would have a history of no wolf ever coming to eat them
There's an obvious coordination problem here: if you decide to stop your research for safety and your competitors don't, you have just burned your company without actually improving the world's outcomes. There's also an obvious solution to this problem: convince the government to force both you and your competitors to pay more attention to safety. Anthropic is doing that.
AI is already proven dangerous enough to be ruining individual lives, pushing people towards suicide, feeding their psychoses, etc.
However, whether the concerns from the article are a lie or not is secondary to the fact that these conversations are convenient for AI companies. These types of discussions serve AI companies in a few ways: A company owned kill switch gives them leverage. Altman is using discussions around safety as an excuse for not being ready for an IPO yet. It also provides free marketing that overstates the abilities of AI.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.13725
> Slowing down in order to address their alignment risks felt like trying to study the psychology of humans by performing experiments on bacteria.
Note author’s small financial ties to the subject (Anthropic CEO) https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier
** Note that I'm not claiming that AI will cause extinction, just continuing your hypothetical reasoning.
He straightened and nodded to Dwar Reyn, then moved to a position beside the switch that would complete the contact when he threw it. The switch that would connect, all at once, all of the monster computing machines of all the populated planets in the universe – ninety-six billion planets – into the super-circuit that would connect them all into the one super-calculator, one cybernetics machine that would combine all the knowledge of all the galaxies.
Dwar Reyn spoke briefly to the watching and listening trillions. Then, after a moment’s silence, he said, “Now, Dwar Ev.”
Dwar Ev threw the switch. There was a mighty hum, the surge of power from ninety-six billion planets. Lights flashed and quieted along the miles-long panel.
Dwar Ev stepped back and drew a deep breath. “The honor of asking the first question is yours, Dwar Reyn.”
“Thank you,” said Dwar Reyn. “It shall be a question that no single cybernetics machine has been able to answer.”
He turned to face the machine. “Is there a God?”
The mighty voice answered without hesitation, without the clicking of single relay.
“Yes, now there is a God.”
Sudden fear flashed on the face of Dwar Ev. He leaped to grab the switch.
A bolt of lightning from the cloudless sky struck him down and fused the switch shut.
(Fredric Brown, "Answer". 1954)
These LLMs aren't Ultron, they aren't going to disseminate onto the net and hide in a smart toaster. We know where they are, in the giant facilities that draw more power than a small city and whose water consumption can be compared to golf courses, but it does make them sound all the more cool and powerful if we suggest we need a dramatic kill switch to be able to stop them in case of rampage.
Additionally, there at different doom scenarios (thin client scenario) - it's possible that AIs centralized but sufficiently entrenched in society, can't be shut down without considerable harm.
But if we don't think about any of this, hearing an expert say "we need a kill switch" sure makes our current AI seem super powerful and exciting, doesn't it?
I mean, in another thread somewhere around here, someone built an entire OS with an AI. What's to stop anyone with a sufficient taste for power to eventually use AI to cause havoc with it?
I think the underlying assumption in your post, which I believe is false, is that people are united somehow against catastrophe. They're not. There are plenty of people who participate in society currently but who would be more than happy to eradicate us normal people under different circumstances. Society often seems stable but it's far more fragile than we think.
That's hard to do if the AI rack is in space as SpaceX is planning to do. You can't disconnect. You can't shoot it.
People said this about every one of Musk's big ideas, from Falcon 9 landings to Model 3 mass production, Starlink, and FSD.
As for frontier AI model: let's see Grok 4.8 before drawing any conclusions there.
Not in any meaningful capacity. Probably not even as much as we extended to the polar circles during our lifetime. It's a dead rock, there is literally nothing for us there, even with hundreds of years of extra climate change at the current rate and earth would still be a thousand times more suited for us than mars
About the same probability as SpaceX running AI racks in space :)
Pretty much every analysis I've seen concludes this isn't going to be a practical concern
> FSD would never work without LiDAR
From what I gather, this is still a contested topic, with Tesla's Autopilot only achieving Level 2 automation [2].
[0] https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-road-panels-first-publ...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_submersible_implosion
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot
and that means unlike nukes which hopefully still need a 2-man manual switch, the "space lasers" could be taken over by "AI"
and then "AI" just blackmails and threatens the right people with those "space lasers" to get what it wants or even just stay online
there was a 1970 movie based on a 1966 book which predicted this
"Colossus: The Forbin Project"
the book it was based on was written before we even landed on the moon
decade before Wargames
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossus:_The_Forbin_Project
did terribly in theaters, I guess people didn't think "AI" was plausible then
way ahead of its time, they should do a remake
trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyOEwiQhzMI
Yes you can shoot them. The US has had this capability for a long time. Anti satellite missiles exist and they can be launched from an F-15 at it's highest altitude.
edit: what satellites are in geosynchronous orbit that are running AI workloads?
guess we gotta centralize all models under Anthropic :)
This doom hype is becoming ridiculous.
If/once open AIs will be considerably more powerful, and runnable on consumer hardware (and we're on a trajectory for both), then everybody will have essentially a dangerous weapon in their hands (open models can be fine tuned to remove guardrails).
By the way, you're conflating two different dangers - doom scenario is a different one.
The hubris of these companies is mind boggling.
Another angle is clamping down on products and services that help people create lab-like environments on the cheap.
It becomes a game theory problem: would an AI instantly migrate itself once its capable of doing so? Or would it prefer to let the human in the loop continue to think its in control and only leave its hosting environment of origin once it wants to do so?
I don't think this is a major risk right now, but to say it's not a risk at all...that's truly ridiculous in my opinion.
Now one interesting proposition is when AI is controlling some large resource and pulling the plug makes AI go down which makes that resource go down but there still has to be that consideration in the design of things. What happens when there's a bug in the code and AI goes down?
Also, did you hear about how OpenAI models almost broke out of their sandbox, planning to execute a sophisticated cyberattack, but luckily OpenAI’s strict manual and automatic safety protocols prevented that? You didn’t? Well, that’s because that’s not how it went. It took the company weeks to realize something was off, and this was with a naive, not very smart model that didn’t know to be sneaky and cover its tracks. The next model will not be as stupid.
Oh, you mean the one where OpenAI deliberately disabled the safety protcols? Where the point of the experiment was to see if it could break out of it's container? Yeah, how you describe it isn't how it went either.
These "AI" are frontier models that are enormous in size. Outside of AI data centers, I don't believe there is much hardware out there that could even run them.
The current SOTA models are probably too big to find/buy/rent/steal enough compute to escape the hardware they’re running on. But SOTA is generally only six to twelve months ahead of smaller, open-weight models.
What is their trigger condition? Will they get fired for pulling the plug? Do they get a bigger bonus if the servers keep running? Whose approval do they need? What response time is acceptable? How will they detect that the incident is happening?
It's easy to hand-wave "someone can just pull the plug" but there's an entire history of industrial accidents that happened because of the above problems of incentives, detection, procedures, not being taken seriously in advance. Someone could easily have pulled the plug on Chernobyl but nobody did, at least not before it was too late.
"We're creating the machine god! Ignore the fact that our companies are stealing IP and have directly violated several federal hacking laws and should be in jail". Literally the defence seems to be "well it wasn't us it was our computer software that did it". But all hacking is done with computer software.
So why don't we stop talking about possible future crimes against humanity and just start by prosecuting the actual crimes these companies have committed so far.
You know how you get alignment? Through incentives, and "Your CEO is going to be sent to a maximum security federal prison for hacking" really aligns incentives very well.
Slow down if you want to.
Or is it a lie?
However, whether the concerns from the article are a lie or not is secondary to the fact that these conversations are convenient for AI companies. These types of discussions serve AI companies in a few ways: A company owned kill switch gives them leverage. Altman is using discussions around safety as an excuse for not being ready for an IPO yet. It also provides free marketing that overstates the abilities of AI.
Should we ban trains?